Well, well. It isn't every day that a blog post becomes obsolete as soon as it's published, but Wednesday was no ordinary day. Let's consider the latest development in the Chen Guangcheng saga:
Liu Weimin stated that should Mr. Chen wish to study abroad, as more than 300,000 Chinese students do, he “can apply through normal channels to the relevant departments in accordance with the law, just like any other Chinese citizen".
On the surface, this represents a deft political compromise after 48 hours of chaotic bungling on both sides. But to me this solution raises more questions than answers. First, where is Chen going to stay while waiting for his application to study abroad be processed? Will he return to his compound in Shandong Province, which remains surrounded by several dozen local thugs? Will he be allowed to live freely elsewhere, say, in Beijing or Tianjin (the city previously handpicked to be Chen's destination)?
Also, the Chinese government would be under no obligation to accept Chen's application, would it? Many Chinese students who apply to study abroad are rejected, so couldn't Beijing simply say that Chen didn't meet the requirements? The US would not have the diplomatic ability to ensure Chen's safety and safe passage out of the country once he has been released back into Chinese hands. Won't Chen just go back into a precarious state of limbo, as before?
One thing worth keeping in mind is this: the Chinese public is not necessarily on Chen's side. State media coverage in the country is emphasizing the usual "U.S. meddling in Chinese affairs" canard, and few ordinary people know or care much about Chen's particular grievances. The Party understands that it faces little risk in public backlash in detaining Chen indefinitely, and that over time foreign interest in Chen's welfare will surely decrease. Time is on Beijing's side.
The U.S. was motivated to resolve the Chen crisis as quickly as possible due to the looming China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogues summit . As a result, American diplomats were too eager to accede to Chen's wishes to release him, leading to the standoff at the hospital. Now I wonder whether they're making a similar error in trusting China's permission for Chen to apply to study abroad. In any event, I don't think the Clinton State Department has handled this Chen case well at all.
More information, without a doubt, is forthcoming.
UPDATE: Chen Guangcheng has arrived safely in the United States, and will apparently be studying at NYU here in New York City. I'm happy to be proven wrong, in this case.
